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British Economy Expected to Grow By 1% in 2020

The latest predictions suggest that the British economy will grow next year. However, it is now believed that the growth will be only 1% which is lower than had previously been predicted.

The updated prediction comes from the EY ITEM Club. This is an economic forecasting group that looks at official Government data to spot trends.

The Fully Story

The group now believe that 2019 will show growth rates of 1.3%, but that next year will see growth in the UK fall to just 1%. This is lower than the 1.5% growth that had previously been predicted by them this summer.

The reasons for their lower expectations now is the increasing degree of political uncertainty in the country. Doubts around Brexit and an upcoming general election have caused the analysts to revise their original figures. There is also the sluggishness of the overall world economy to take into account.

Looking further ahead, the EY ITEM Club believe that leaving the EU will have a negative impact, with no alternative boost looking likely once this happens. This means that they have also lowered their predictions for GDP growth from 2021 to 2023. 

This is partly based on the possibility of the UK entering into a free trade deal with Europe. What this could mean is that British firms suffer from higher non-tariff barriers when they are working with companies in the EU from now on.

Exports are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2020, after a challenging year that has seen them contract by 0.1%. The rising levels of interest in international collection services show that there are still worries over dealing with global customers in the current financial climate.

Future Predictions

Their prediction for growth in 2021 has now been adjusted to 1.5%. This is down from the previous figure of 1.8% that they released early on this year.

Onto 2022, and the prediction for GDP growth has dropped from 1.9% down to 1.7%. It is a similar story in 2023, with their previous prediction of 2% now lowered to 1.8%. 

Another area they have looked at is business investment. In this case, they believe that it will contract by 1.3% during the current year. They then expect it to remain flat in 2020, with a lack of political clarity seen as being the main reason for this.

Overall, the EY ITEM Club analysts expect the post-Brexit recovery to be gradual and to be limited in nature. They predict that expected expenditure will return to growth by the second quarter of 2020, with slow progress then following through the rest of the year.


The economic growth levels predicted in this study for next year would be the weakest in a decade. This leads to the question of whether the Bank of England will move to cut interest rates in 2020.

This forecast suggests that the rate will remain at 0.75% unless the country experiences a “major downward lurch” in the meantime.